2019 – 023 – Reporting the fraudulent practices behind global warming science

Reporting the fraudulent practices behind global warming science

by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The prison gate is about to slam thunderously shut on the global warming fraudsters. It is time to report their profitable but murderous deception to the public investigating and prosecuting authorities.

To prove a fraud, though, is harder than to prove a murder. One has to demonstrate – beyond reasonable doubt – not one but two criminal intents.

The first is the intent to deceive by way of a false and dishonest representation. A representation is false if it is untrue or misleading and the person making it knows that it is, or may be, untrue or misleading. A representation is dishonest if what was done would be regarded as dishonest by the reasonable man on the Clapham omnibus, and if the perpetrator must have realized that the reasonable man would regard the deception as dishonest.

The second is the intent to cause a gain or loss in money or money’s worth by means of the deception – an intent either to gain by fraudulently getting what one does not have or by fraudulently keeping what one already has, or both, or an intent to cause a loss by depriving the victims of what they already possess, or by preventing them from gaining what they would otherwise have gotten, or both.

I recently visited a country house somewhere in Scotland to consult an eminent lawyer with close ties to the police. I described to him certain specific matters that appeared, prima facie, to be frauds. I told him exactly how the fraudulent claim of “97% consensus” had been fabricated. He got the point at once.

I went on to tell him how certain parties have wilfully and, as we see it, fraudulently thwarted our attempts to get one of the leading learned journals of climatology to publish our paper demonstrating that a single, elementary, catastrophic error of physics is the sole cause of the absurdly overblown predictions of warmer weather on the basis of which scientifically-illiterate governments have been panicked by downright evil lobby groups and profiteers of doom into causing untold death, disease, educational disadvantage, industrial destruction and financial ruin worldwide.

His eyes widened as the story unfolded. I said that, when we had submitted our paper to a journal, its editor had at first replied that he could not find anyone competent to review the paper. When we had persisted, the editor had spent six months garnering precisely two reviews. The first reviewer said he disagreed with the mathematics on a page that did not exist: whatever paper the reviewer was commenting upon, we were able to prove it was not the paper we had submitted to the journal.

The second reviewer had actually read the submitted paper, but he had commented that, because he had found the paper’s conclusion that global warming was not a problem uncongenial, he had not read the equations that justified the conclusion.

We pointed out that, since neither of the reviewers had actually reviewed our paper, the editor had received no indication that there was anything wrong with it, wherefore he should publish it without any further delay. He refused, saying that he would only publish the paper if the reviewers said it should be published. He added that he had telephoned a third party, who had told him not to publish the paper. We asked for that review in writing, so that we could comment on it and respond to any specific scientific points it made, but were refused.

The journal’s management then got in touch to invite us to submit further papers in future and to say they hoped we were happy with the review process. I wrote back to say that, unless we were given the opportunity to appeal against the editor’s decision, we proposed to report him as a participant in what Professor Mörner has justifiably described as “the biggest fraud in human history”.

Thereupon, the editor agreed to send out the paper for review again. For our part, we offered to expand the argument considerably, so as to forestall the usual attempts by politically and financially motivated academics to weasel out of allowing the paper to be published.

But when we submitted the much-extended paper, the editor did not reply. When we wrote a reminder email, again he did not reply.

We wrote to the IPCC, not once but twice, to activate the error-reporting protocol that the IPCC had been obliged to adopt after a series of acutely embarrassing errors, such as the laughable notion that all the ice in the Himalayas would melt by 2050. The IPCC, however, had failed even to acknowledge our report, let alone to activate the mandatory protocol that the Inter-Academy Council had obliged it to put in place.

The eminent lawyer’s eyebrows lifted. He pondered for a few moments, and then gave us the following advice:

First, he said, we should write to the Serious Fraud Office, with a copy to my local Chief Constable and a further copy to him, putting the authorities on notice that a fraud was suspected, providing the evidence of the “97% consensus” fraud (some of the perpetrators were in Britain) and providing the evidence of how we had been mistreated by the journal. At this stage, we should not request an investigation, but we should outline the widespread death, disease, damage and destruction caused by the suspected fraud.

Next, he advised us to submit our paper, in the normal way, to a second journal, this time within the jurisdiction of the British investigating authorities. We should keep meticulous records of the correspondence between us and the journal. If that second journal failed either to publish our paper or to provide a legitimate and robust scientific refutation of our argument, then we should copy that correspondence to the Serious Fraud Office and to the Chief Constable, again not requesting an investigation but merely putting them on notice that the fraud appeared to be continuing, and appeared to involve more than one journal.

Then, he said, assuming that no genuine fault had been found with our scientific argument, we should submit the paper to a third journal, again in the normal way, keeping a careful track of the correspondence. If the third journal did not handle the paper scientifically, we should write to the police again, this time to request investigation and prosecution of the connected frauds of the authors of the “97% consensus” claim, of the journal that had published that claim and had failed to publish a correction when requested, of the board of management of that journal, of the three journals that had refused to handle our paper scientifically, and of the IPCC secretariat that had fraudulently failed to activate its error-reporting protocol.

By that time, he said, the police would begin to be curious. They would check out certain easily-verifiable points, such as the fact that the list of almost 12,000 papers allegedly reviewed by the perpetrators of the “97% consensus” deception showed that the authors had themselves marked only 0.5% of the papers as explicitly stating their support for the “consensus” position as they had defined it. Once the police realized that we were telling the truth, they would begin to investigate, and he would support them in doing so.

So that is what we are going to do. And this is where you come in. There follows a condensed version (warning: it’s not for wimps) of our scientific argument to the effect that climatologists had forgotten, at a vital point in their “how-much-warming” calculations, to take due account of the fact that the Sun is shining. Is our argument sound? Is it definitive? Or is it erroneous or in some respects deficient? And should we follow the eminent lawyer’s advice? I shall read your comments with interest.

An error in defining temperature feedback explains overstatements of global warming

Abstract: Climatology borrows feedback method from control theory1-6, but errs by defining feedback as responsive only to perturbations of the input signal, emission temperature. If so, impossibly, the feedback fraction due to warming from noncondensing greenhouse gases would exceed that due to emission temperature by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Then feedback response would be up to 90% of Charney sensitivity (equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 after feedback has acted)7 and of the uncertainty therein8. In reality, feedback also responds to the entire reference signal9,10. In climate, that signal (the signal before feedback acts) is reference temperature, the sum of all natural as well as anthropogenic perturbations and, above all, of emission temperature. It is here demonstrated that the system-gain factor, the ratio not only (as now) of equilibrium to reference sensitivities but also of entire temperatures, is insensitive even to large uncertainties therein: in 1850 and 2011 it was 1.1. Though models7 project 3.35 [2.1, 4.7] K Charney sensitivity, the revised value – the product of the system-gain factor 1.1 and the 1.05 K reference sensitivity7 to doubled CO2 – falls on 1.15 [1.10, 1.25] K, confirming evidence11 that feedback barely alters temperature and that, even without mitigation, net-harmful warming is unlikely. Mitigation entails a heavy net global welfare loss disproportionately afflicting 1.3 billion people to whom access to electricity is denied.

Projected midrange global warming outstrips observation threefold (Fig. 1) due to an erroneous definition of temperature feedback in climatology. All transport across the climate-system boundary is radiative; and, in the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, flux density at an emitting surface is a function of absolute temperature, which is accordingly the proper metric for sensitivity studies. Yet climatology defines feedback response as the difference not between entire reference and equilibrium temperatures (respectively before and after feedback has acted) but between sensitivities, concluding that feedback response comprises up to 90%7 of equilibrium sensitivity, and of the uncertainty that arises therein8 chiefly because feedbacks are unquantifiable by measurement and act at resolutions below models’ (GCMs’) grid-scale. Reference sensitivity7 to doubled CO2 is only clip_image0021, p. 676, cf. 12: but in GCMs the large imagined feedback response and its large attendant uncertainty elevates Charney sensitivity (equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2) to 3.35 [2.1, 4.7] K 7. IPCC, whose [1.5, 4.5] K interval1,13 is as in 197914, mentions “feedback” more than 1000 times1.

clip_image004

Figure 1. | Projections1,7 of global warming from 1850-2011 (inner scale), in response to doubled CO2 (middle scale) and the sum of these two (outer scale) greatly exceeds warming consistent with the 0.75 K observed from 1850-2011 (green needle). Midrange Charney sensitivity3.35 K (red needle) implies 2.4 K equilibrium warming by 2011, thrice observation. The revised interval derived herein is consistent with observation.

Control theory, developed for telephone circuits9,10 but applicable to all feedback-moderated dynamical systems, defines feedback as responsive to the entire reference signal as well as to perturbations. However, climatology1-6 considers only perturbationse.g. 1, p. 1450:

Climate feedback: An interaction in which a perturbation in one climate quantity causes a change in a second, and the change in the second quantity ultimately leads to an additional change in the first. A negative feedback is one in which the initial perturbationis weakened by the changes it causes; a positive feedback is one in which the initial perturbation is enhanced … the climate quantity that is perturbed is the global mean surface temperature, which in turn causes changes in the global radiation budget. In either case, the initial perturbation can either be externally forced or arise as part of internal variability. [Authors’ emphases]

Due to this definitional error, projected Charney sensitivity clip_image006 has hitherto been imagined to exceed reference sensitivity clip_image008 up to tenfold7-8, 15-20. A corrected definition follows (with climate-related terms in parentheses):

Feedback (in clip_image010 of surface equilibrium temperature clip_image012) induces a feedback response (clip_image014, in Kelvin at time clip_image016) to the entire reference signal (reference temperature clip_image018), the sum of the input signal (emission temperature clip_image020) and all perturbations (natural and anthropogenic reference sensitivities clip_image022). The feedback loop (Fig. 2) modifies the output signal (clip_image012[1]) by returning some fraction of it, the feedback fraction (clip_image024), to the input/output node. The ratio of output to input signals is the system-gain factor (clip_image026. Negative feedback attenuates output; positive feedback amplifies it.

clip_image028

Figure 2. | The feedback loop (a) simplifies to the system-gain schematic (b)

Given that clip_image030 and clip_image032clip_image034, the sum of the infinite convergent geometric series clip_image036 under the convergence criterion clip_image038. Visibly (Fig. 2), the feedback block modifies all of clip_image040, not merely clip_image042.

Sensitivities and absolute temperatures: Climatology obtains equilibrium sensitivities clip_image044 using (1), derived from the energy-balance equation via a Taylor-series expansion4,21. In (1), clip_image046 is climatology’s system-gain factor, clip_image048 a forcing; clip_image050 a near-invariant sensitivity parameter22, p.354; 23, 24. In (2), the corrected definition of feedback is used.

clip_image052. (1)
clip_image054 (2)

Though (1, 2) are both valid, (1) cannot constrain clip_image046[1], because small uncertainties in clip_image044[1],clip_image042[1] yield large uncertainty in clip_image046[2]; but in (2), where clip_image056,clip_image040[1] exceed clip_image044[2],clip_image042[2] by two orders of magnitude, even large uncertainties in clip_image056[1],clip_image040[2] entail small uncertainty in clip_image058. The use of (2) remedies climatology’s restrictive definition, obviates quantification of individual feedbacks and diagnoses of equilibrium sensitivities using GCMs and, above all, facilitates reliable constraint of equilibrium sensitivities.

System gain: clip_image060clip_image062 due to pre-industrial GHGs6 in 1850 was clip_image064. In 1850, clip_image066clip_image06825. The Planck parameter clip_image070. Net anthropogenic forcing1, fig. SPM.5 clip_image072 to 2011, so that clip_image074.

In 2011, clip_image076. Given clip_image078 radiative imbalance26 by 2010, clip_image080 from 1850-2011 (of which clip_image082 was observed25). Since clip_image084clip_image086, as in 1850. Thus, clip_image058[1] proves stable over time: for instance, the clip_image088 uncertainty25 in clip_image090 barely perturbs clip_image058[2], so that, where the curve of the response function clip_image092 is linearclip_image094 clip_image096.

That curve passes through two points clip_image098. Since clip_image100, the first point is clip_image102. The second is the well-constrained clip_image104 in 1850. If clip_image106 is an exponential-growth curve, the exponent clip_image108. For clip_image1107clip_image112. Then clip_image114clip_image116 and clip_image118, near-identical to the linear case.

If clip_image120 were derived not from clip_image122 but from clip_image124 and current estimates of clip_image006[1], temperature in 1850 would exceed observation and clip_image006[2] would barely exceed clip_image126. For the midrange clip_image1287, GCMs’ system-gain factor clip_image130 implies that clip_image132; but then clip_image134, so that clip_image136in 1850 would have been clip_image138, exceeding observation by clip_image140, and, in any event, clip_image142, close to the linear case.

If per impossibile the response curve bypassed clip_image124[1], it must still visit clip_image122[1] in 1850. If the second point were (clip_image008[1], current clip_image006[3]), the ratio clip_image144 of the feedback fractions clip_image146 due to clip_image148 and clip_image150 due to clip_image062[1] becomes impossibly excessive: e.g., clip_image152clip_image154clip_image156 (Fig. 3). Yet the same feedbacks respond to sensitivities as to emission temperature, so that clip_image158 in (1) is near-invariant, implying clip_image160.

clip_image162

Figure 3. | Ratio clip_image164 of the feedback fractions clip_image150[1] due to clip_image166and clip_image146[1] due to clip_image148[1], for clip_image006[4] on clip_image168. Beyond the plausible regions, elevated feedback-fraction ratios and equilibrium sensitivities are impossible.

For a non-exponential-growth curve of clip_image106[1] that was near-linear, clip_image006[5] would barely exceed clip_image170. For a significantly nonlinear or even stochastic non-exponential-growth curve, variability in the successive feedback fractions clip_image172 would at some point exceed that in an exponential-growth curve, contrary a fortiori to the near-invariance of clip_image158[1]. Therefore, regardless of the shape of clip_image106[2], Charney sensitivities clip_image006[6] cannot much exceed clip_image126[1].

Predicted and observed feedback have diverged (Fig. 4). Feedbacks other than water vapour self-cancel1, table 9.5. By Clausius-Clapeyron, the atmosphere may carry 7% K–1more water vapour27, but specific humidity is thus rising28 only in the lower troposphere, where water vapour’s spectral lines are near-saturated: as humidity increases, only the far wings add to infrared absorption29, which varies logarithmically +with humidity. Though GCMs predict 90% of water vapour feedback in the tropical mid-troposphere, specific humidity is falling there, so that predicted warming30 at twice the surface rate is not seen11,31. Thus, feedback response varies near-linearly with temperature, so that the water-vapour feedback is small.

clip_image174

Figure 4. | The tropical mid-troposphere hot spot (a) is not observed (b).

Monte Carlo processes (Fig. 5) compared the revised 2 σ Charney-sensitivity interval 1.16 [1.09, 1.23] K with the current 3.35 [2.1, 4.7] K (inset); and, in an empirical campaign, authoritative estimates of anthropogenic forcing over ten periods all yielded 1.15 K.

clip_image176

Figure 5. | (a) Monte Carlo distribution of Charney sensitivities clip_image006[7] revised after defining feedback correctly (bin widths 0.005 K); (b) Scaled comparison of distributions of revised vs. current Charney sensitivities clip_image006[8] (bin widths 0.025 K).

No consensus: Only 0.3% of 11,944 climate papers from 1991-2011 found clip_image178 of post 1950-warming anthropogenic32. If some warming were natural, equilibrium sensitivities might be less than found here.

Discussion: The Stern climate-economics review33 took a clip_image180 mid-range estimate of warming by 2100 as driving a welfare loss of clip_image182clip_image184 of global GDP (cfclip_image186clip_image188)1. The 11 K upper bound33 drove a 20%-of-GDP extinction-level loss assuming a clip_image190 pure rate-of-time discount rate, giving “roughly a clip_image192 chance of the planet not seeing out this century”34. Adding clip_image194 per-capita consumption growth without climate change gave a clip_image196 mean social discount rate (cf. clip_image19835), against a clip_image20036-37 minimum market discount rate. Since the present result shows the probability of extinction is nil, submarket rates are unjustifiable. Even without allowing for the present result, at the clip_image202 mean discount rate a clip_image184[1]-of-GDP welfare loss33 would become clip_image204 (or clip_image206assuming no net welfare loss until preindustrial temperature is exceeded by clip_image208), while a clip_image210-of-GDP loss33 would become only clip_image188[1] (clip_image212).

Conclusion: The World Bank cites global warming in refusing to fund coal, oil and gas projects in developing countries, where denying electricity to 1.3 billion people curtails IQ and shortens lifespans by ~20 years. Once temperature feedback is correctly defined, anthropogenic warming will be small, slow and net-beneficial. A policy rethink is advisable.


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